क्यों मौन हो तुम ?

आज तुम मौन हो ?

तुम्हारी चुप्पी का शोर 

कान के पर्दे फाड़ रहा है 

बहुत परेशान कर रहा है 

सभी सोच रहे हैं 

क्या हो गया तुम्हें ?

कहाँ छुपे हो तुम ?

आज क्यों मौन हो तुम ?

घटना तो बहुत दूर की बात है 

ज़रा अंदेशा हो, शुरु होते थे 

ज़ोर से चीखते चिल्लाते थे 

आसमान सिर कर देते थे 

और आज चुप हो तुम?

कुरु सभा की सीमा से परे 

इतने घृणित कृत्य पर 

इतने निन्दनीय कृत्य पर

इस भयंकर काण्ड पर

तुम चुप हो !?

आख़िर क्यों चुप हो?

हाँ, समझा

काण्ड तुम्हारे अपनों का है

तुम्हें डर है - फाँसी होगी?

जनता नौंच कर खा जायेगी

नाश हो जायेगा उनका

हाँ नाश तो होगा उनका

अवश्य ही नाश होगा उनका

साथ ही नाश होगा 

हर चुप रहने वाले का

और होना भी चाहिये

कुरु सभा की तरह

गुरु, पितामह, भई सबका

यहाँ मोमबत्ती नहीं जलाते

पूरी लंका ही फूंक देते हैं 

आततायी का वध होता है

अर्जुन संहार कर देता सबका

स्वयं राम कर देते है 

समूल समस्या समाधान

तुम मौन न रहो

छुपो मत, बाहर आओ

चुप्पी तोड़ो ज़ोर से चीखो

डाक्टर की आत्मा पुकारती है

धिक्कारती है तुम्हें 

बाहर निकलो चुप्पी तोड़ो

न्याय दिलाओ, न्याय दिलाओ

ज़ोर से चीखो और चिल्लाओ

न्याय दिलाओ, न्याय दिलाओ

एक और कली

 कली एक और 

खिल गई है 

बाग में मेरे

छोटी है, सुंदर है 

रोती है हँसती है, 

सोती है जगती है

दूध पीती है सो जाती है 

हरदम मस्त रहती है

अभी छोटी है 

पर अपनी पहचान है 

इसकी अपनी हस्ती है 

अपना व्यक्तित्व है 

अपनी समझ है

नासमझ मत समझना 

ठीक से समझो इसे 

देखो चतुर है कितनी 

किलकारी से, चीख से 

रो कर, हंस कर

अपनी हर बात 

बता देती है अपनी माँ को 

हर बार, एक दम साफ़ 

फिर करा लेती है 

सब कुछ जो भी चाहती है 

दिन रात जब चाहती है 

अपनी माँ से कराती है

बच्ची छोटी है 

अच्छी है प्यारी है

सबकी दुलारी है

मेरे बाग की नयी कली

कितनी प्यारी है 

मेरे बाग की नयी कली

अनिक्षा

 कौन है ये

नटखट, शरारती

भोली नादान

ख़ुशियाँ बिखेरती 

मेरे आँगन में घूमती

ये लेकर भागी वहाँ 

वो ले गयी वहाँ 

घर अस्त व्यस्त किया

सब उलट पलट किया

बटोरा दिया एक ओर

गोल सुन्दर चेहरा

बड़ी-बड़ी आँखें 

अपने दादा सी दिखती 

दादागिरी करती सब ओर

अनिच्छा से नहीं आई

हमारी प्रार्थना का फल है

नाम क्या है इसका?

अनिक्षा नाम है इसका

घर ख़ुशियों से भरा है इसने

यह अनिक्षा है

शाश्वत

मैंने देखा था 

एक छोटा सा बच्चा

 इधर उधर भागता 

खेल कूद में मस्त 

न कोई फिक्र , न कोई चिंता 

स्कूल से घर फिर खेल

खाना खाया फिर सोया 

कल फिर स्कूल 

ये बिलकुल  चैन से था

ये बेफिक्र था, 

हम सबको चिन्ता थी

अब बदल गया है कितना 

स्कूल  पढ़ाई होमवर्क 

रिवीज़न टेस्ट परीक्षा 

फिर कल की तैयारी 

डॉक्टरी का सपना 

‘नीट‘ की परीक्षा 

गनतत्व पर ध्यान

समझ गया है

दायित्व है इसपर

अपने कल का

हमारे कल का

हमारे स्वास्थ्य का

हमारे कल के स्वास्थ्य का

अपने भविष्य के जीवन का

ध्यान है इसे हरदम

आयु में छोटा है अभी

पर बड़ा हो गया है

समझदार हो गया है

बहुत समझदार हो गया है

हाँ और लम्बा भी

पिता से दो इंच ऊपर

इसमें लगन है समझ है

कड़ी मेहनत का पक्का इरादा है

मुझे भरोसा है पक्का विश्वास है

ये जायेगा सबसे ऊपर

सफलता के शिखर पर

जो चाहेगा कर लेगा

जब चाहेगा कर लेगा

तुम चैन से रहो, परेशान मत रहो

इसको करने दो, जो चाहे करने दो

याद रखना, ये शाश्वत सत्य है

    बालक जब चाहेगा 

    अपने मन में ठान लेगा  

    दिन- रात एक कर देगा 

    जो भी चाहेगा कर लेगा

तुम परेशान मत हो 

जो भी चाहेगा ये कर लेगा

तुम चैन से रहो, परेशान मत हो 

तुम चैन से रहो, परेशान मत हो

Investing in the Share Market- a Meeting with an 'expert'.

A few days back I was attending a party and overheard a conversation wherein a young man was explaining to a group of people that it was very simple and easy for him to make money in the stock market. He mentioned several companies whose stock had gone up 3-4 times in last one year and mentioned that if he had money, he would have invested in those companies and made a ‘killing’. He made the entire process looks so simple and easy that most of the listeners agreed with him and were willing to invest money with him. I was quite surprised that people so quickly and willingly agreed to part with their hard-earned money/savings. It is, perhaps, understandable – who doesn't want to get rich and sooner the better.

I couldn't resist myself and asked the young man where he studied about ‘Securities Market’ and how long he had been investing in the stock market. He said, “No. Uncle! I deal only with ‘Share market’. I have not attended any program/course and have been following the stock market for last 12 months or so. Now I understand the nuances and can easily spot the winning stock”. He added that being aware of what is happening in the market, following it for an hour or so every day had enabled him to understand the trends and market sentiments so clearly that he has no problem in identifying winners.

I asked him, if he had read the book called ‘The  Intelligent Investor’ by Benjamin Graham or ‘The Little Book of Common-Sense Investing’ by John Boogle. I asked him a few other questions viz., Do you go with the ‘Fundamental Analysis’ or by the ‘Technical Analysis’. How do you work out and suggest what portfolio would suit which investor? What ‘Portfolio Management Strategy’ would you recommend for a retired person like me?”

He was quick to reply, “Uncle these are all bookish things. There is not much point in going into the theory or what happened in the earlier years. That is history and you understand ‘history is history’ and ‘future is future’. Stock market is not about ‘history’ it is about ‘future’. In the stock market you must learn to accurately predict what is going to happen and those who have the sense to do this make a killing. Most investors and companies follow the book, and their actions can be predicted. I am an intelligent independent investor, and they cannot predict what I would do. This is my unique advantage, my ‘USP’ and it would give me 200% return in a year.”

I asked him how much money he had made in the last 12 months. He replied that since he was doing a job and not able to save much money, he was not able to invest large sums in the market and that his investment was not very big. I again asked him how much money he had invested in last 12 months. He didn't like the question but answered that he had investment of about ₹60,000/- and purchased shares of one company and his investment has appreciated by about ₹30,000/- in last 12 months.

I asked him what he proposed to do in the coming time. Very enthusiastically he told me that the friends around him had promised to raise and give him about ₹60,00,000/- which he would invest. The money would double within a year or so. He was certain that he would be able to raise more money and the more money he invested, more he would make in the stock market. This way he would fulfil his dream of becoming rich and sharing his wealth with his friends who would be raising money for him.

As I was about to move of, he urged me, “Uncle! you please invest your retirement fund with me, and I will double it for you in two years. Then you can go for the world tour.”

When I think of this young man, I am reminded of a talk I had with a bus driver in Uttarakhand. He was a very jovial chap and kept singing or humming some songs as he drove the bus in the hills negotiating sharp curves on the hilly terrain. During one stop at a roadside eatery, I had asked him how he managed to remain so cool and composed while driving on such a difficult road. I asked him if he was ever scared while negotiating sharp curves on the roads particularly at points where there was a steep hill on one side and a deep fall on the other. I also asked him how come he was not afraid of passengers beating him in case there was an accident. He replied, "Sirji! I close my eyes while negotiating difficult curves and turns and then I am not scared. In case of an accident, I would be the worst hit person. The passengers and public will only have sympathies for me, in case I survive”.

 

Agitation and the three Acts passed in 2020 Part -1.

An agitation is going on against the three bills passed by the parliament by the due process and approved by the Hon’ble President of India. The group agitating against these Acts consists of not just a section of farmers from Punjab but also several other groups. I do not wish to name them here. Suffice to say that these are well identified and most of them have been agitating against the NDA Govt from time to time. The agitators have gathered in a large number around Delhi trying to lay siege to stop the Govt from functioning and to disrupt life of people in Delhi.

The democratic process that we have collectively adopted, provides for dissent to be expressed. Therefore, the rights of the protesters and dissenters are to be defended, protected and respected. While recognizing the rights of the dissenters we also need to protect and defend the rights of those who support these Acts and think that these will usher in a new era of prosperity and help raise financial position of the farmers. Certainly, it is the duty of the Govt to respect the right of both these groups and we are sure that the Govt will do it.

While protecting the rights of these two groups, the Govt must also give a clear signal that the democratic process cannot be subverted by a group of 10-20 lakh people disrupting normal like and holding the rest of the countrymen to ransom. If such a signal is not given, it may mean that any group which can mobilize such a gathering (10-20 lakh) shall run the Govt and the aspirations of the masses conveyed through their elected representatives will be stifled.

In the following paragraphs it is proposed to examine the contents of these Acts. The three Acts are as under:

• Amendment in the Essential Commodities Act 1955.
• Farmers - The Farmers (Empowerment and Protection) Agreement in Price Assurance and Farm Services Act, 2020
• Farmers -The Farmers’ Produce Trade and Commerce (Promotion and Facilitation) Act 2020.

Let us take these up and discuss them.  

Amendment in the Essential Commodities Act 1955

Before we start discussing amendments in this Essential Commodities Act 1955, let me mention that the other relevant Act dealing with the Essential Commodities is ‘The Prevention of Black-marketing and Maintenance of Supplies of Essential Commodities Act, 1980’ and that no amendment has been made in it. Therefore, there should not be any fear of any dilution in the powers of the Govt in dealing with ‘Black-marketing and maintaining supplies of the essential commodities’.

The amendment has been made in the ‘Essential Commodities Act 1955’ by adding (i) ‘sub-section (1A) is added in Section 3’ and by adding (ii) masks (2ply & 3ply surgical masks, N95 masks) & hand sanitizers to the list of essential items given in the schedule of the Act.

Amendment of Section 3

In the Section 3 a Sub-section ‘(1A)’ added after sub-section ‘(1)’. Let me quote the sub-section (1A) which has added in Section 3 through the amendment

Quote

Notwithstanding anything contained in sub-section (1),-

(a) the supply of such foodstuffs, including cereals, pulses, potato, onions, edible oilseeds and oils, as the Central Government may, by notification in the Official Gazette, specify, may be regulated only under extraordinary circumstances which may include war, famine, extraordinary price rise and natural calamity of grave nature;

(b) any action on imposing stock limit shall be based on price rise and an order for regulating stock limit of any agricultural produce may be issued under this Act only if there is-

(i) hundred per cent. increase in the retail price of horticultural produce; or

(ii) fifty per cent. increase in the retail price of non-perishable agricultural foodstuffs.  over the price prevailing immediately preceding twelve months, or average retail price of last five years, whichever is lower:

Provided that such order for regulating stock limit shall not apply to a processor or value chain participant of any agricultural produce, if the stock limit of such person does not exceed the overall ceiling of installed capacity of processing, or the demand for export in case of an exporter:

Provided further that nothing contained in this sub-section shall apply to any order, relating to the Public Distribution System or the Targeted Public Distribution System, made by the Government under this Act or under any other law for the time being in force.

Explanation.-The expression “value chain participant”, in relating to any agricultural product, means and includes a set of participants, from production of any agricultural produce in the field to final consumption, involving processing, packaging, storage, transport and distribution, where at each stage value is added to the product.]

Unquote

The sub-section 1A.a states that prices of the notified commodities may be regulated only under extra-ordinary circumstances like war, famine, Natural Calamities and extraordinary price rise etc. I suppose there is nothing to quarrel on this clause.

The sub-section 1A.b states that stock limits to be imposed only if the prices rise above specified limits (100% for horticultural and above 50% for non-perishable agricultural foodstuffs) when compared to lower of the two prices (1) prevailing immediately preceding twelve months & (2) average retail prices of last five years. The Public Distribution System or the Targeted Public Distribution System have been kept out of this provision. Therefore, any fear on account of likely hoarding of commodities, their non-availability on this account and exceptional increase in prices are rather ill founded.

Further the industries in food processing business and the other participants of the value chain (as clarified in the explanation at the end of the sub-clause) are permitted to stock up to their installed capacities. Those familiar with Investment appraisals exercise (calculation of Return on Investment and Sensitivity Analysis) would vouch that this is least that can be done to reduce risk of non-availability of raw materials for the industry.

Amendment of items in the list of Essential Commodities listed in the Schedule of the Act.

The amendment made in the schedule is quoted below:

Quote

(8) masks (2ply & 3ply surgical masks, N95 masks) & hand sanitizers.

Unquote

The list had 7 items and ‘masks and sanitizers’ have been added to the list. Looking to fact that during the current pandemic these have become an essential part cannot be denied and therefore I suppose there is nothing to quarrel on this account.

The sub-clause uses ‘only if’ conditions which are ‘necessary’ conditions. Students of ‘Logic’ will agree that people often find the ‘necessary’ conditions a bit difficult to appreciate. Once explained, I am certain all will agree that there is nothing in the amendment to agitate about. Therefore, I am certain anyone reading the amendment clause by clause will not find any cause to quarrel on account of the amendment in the Essential Commodities Act 1955.